Cincinnati v Miami Preview

For the first time since 1993, the Cincinnati Bearcats take the show on the road to Oxford to play the Miami Redhawks. The Bearcats just won their first out of state road game of the season, and play their second road game in Ohio after being another MAC team, Toledo. Miami hasn't had a very good season, they've taken losses to Duke, Dayton, Wright State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, but their biggest win of the season game at home, against Xavier. I don't really know how they beat X. I think it was a case of X not showing up. Or X isn't very good this season. Anywho. The game tonight is on ESPN3, and maybe some other channels. Miami trails the series 93-53, but lead the series in Oxford 35-30. They haven't beaten UC since 1990 though. Let's take a look at how the local rivals match up. 

Record: 10-0

Points

1. Dion Dixon 12.3
2. Yancy Gates 11.1
3. Sean Kilpatrick 10.4
4. Cashmere Wright 10.2
5. Rashad Bishop 9.8

Rebounds

1. Yancy Gates 6.6
2. Ibrahima Thomas 6.4
3. Rashad Bishop 4
4. Darnell Wilks 3.4
5. Sean Kilpatrick 3.1

Assists

1. Cashmere Wright 4.2
2. Dion Dixon 1.7
3. Sean Kilpatrick 1.7
4. Yancy Gates 1.6
5. Rashad Bisohp 1.5
6. Darnell Wilks 1.5

Steals

1. Cashmere Wright 1.8
2. Rashad Bishop 1.2
3. Larry Davis 1

Blocks

1. Yancy Gates 1.7

Free Throw %

1. Rashad Bishop 100%
2. Sean Kilpatrick 74%
3. Dion Dixon 72%
4. Cashmere Wright 72%
5. Darnell Wilks 67%

 

Record: 5-6

Points

1. Julian Mavunga 13.9
2. Nick Winbush 11
3. Antonio Ballard 10.9

Orlando Williams 7.9

1. Allan Roberts 6

Rebounds

1. Julian Mavunga 6.8
2. Nick Winbush 6.2
3. Antonio Ballard 6
4. Orlando Williams 3.4
5. Quinten Rollins 2.1

Assitsts

1. Julian Mavunga 2.1
2. Antonio Ballard 1.7
3. Quinten Rollins 1.6
4. Orlando Williams 1.4
5. Nick Winbush 1
6. Allan Roberts 1

Steals

1. Quinten Roberts 1.5
2. Nick Winbush 1

Minutes

1. Julian Mavunga 34.9
2. Nick Winbush 33.2
3. Antonio Ballard 30.3
4. Quinten Rollins 28.5
5. Orlando Williams 27.4

 

I posted the minutes because of UC's style of defense, and because Miami is not very deep. Mavunga has played under 30 minutes only twice this season, and once was in a blowout win. He's been very hot since the Xavier game, scoring at least 16 in every contest, including 24 against X. He had 13 against the Bearcats last season. I think he'll see a lot of Bishop, Thomas, Wilks and whoever else Mick wants to throw at him. I think this version of the Bearcats can match up better defensively with more teams. I think Winbush could be the more difficult match up. He's more a perimeter player, and at 6'7, he's a tough guard. Maybe UC will throw a zone at Miami if Thomas can't guard Mavunga. Maybe we see more minutes for Kilpatrick and Wilks. It will be very interesting to see how Mick mixes and matches against the Redhawks. 

3 Keys

• Miami has given up a high percentage of 3s against, but a large part of that has been playing Duke, Ohio St and San Diego St. They have really gone through the ringer of top teams this season. That means they are going to be a poised team who probably won't panic. After the Xavier game, this is the big one. The first trip by UC to Oxford in 17 years is a pretty big deal, and the Miami crowd should be pretty hyper. The Bearcats shot 3s in rhythm against Oklahoma, and that was a big part of the win. They can get shots against Miami, the thing is to not force them. 
• The Bearcats have been one of the elite teams in the country on the defensive end, ranking 21 in defensive efficiency. Miami has one of the least efficient offenses in the country, 220. Miami is 205 in effective FG%, Cincinnati's defense is 9. Miami is 282 in turnover %, UC is 42. What I'm saying is the Bearcats defense needs to maul the Miami offense. If the Bearcats football team did that, the basketball team can as well. 
• Last season, the Bearcats didn't shoot well, but pounded the offensive glass for the win. This season, the Bearcats have pounded the offensive glass, while Miami has been terrible at getting defensive rebounds. Again, a lot of this is the elite teams they have played, but the Bearcats should be able to follow that guideline. 

Miami has 6 losses, and 5 of them have been double digit defeats. Duke beat them by 30+, Ohio State by 20, San Diego St by 19, Dayton by 12, and Wright St by 15 on Saturday. Miami has struggled with Towson, Troy and IUPUI at home. This is looking like a rout, but Miami's style has been frustrating to Cincinnati seemingly forever. Ken Pom gives UC a 86% chance of winning the game, and has them projected by 10 points. I think UC's margin is going to be a bit higher. I think Miami is going to throw it all at the Bearcats, but I think this group will withstand the crowd, and pace to win. 

Cincinnati 69 Miami 55