Tonight at 9 on FSN/Big East network, the Cincinnati Bearcats come home to play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Bearcats are coming off a big road win at St John's, while the Knights are coming off back to back wins, including one on the road in their last outing. The reason this is a preview instead of a full blown stat breakdown is because I want to use conference only stats for this one. We can get back to the other stuff for the West Virginia game Saturday. Today, we look at the Rutgers and Cincinnati stats in the Big East. We'll look at some team stats, some player stats, and that's about it, because there are only team stats and player stats. Reminder, there are 16 teams in the Big East. 

Record: 17-3, 4-3

Offense
Points Per Game: 63.4 (15)
Points Per Possession: 1 (T-11)
Field Goal %: 39.8 (14)
FT %: 67.7 (12)
3 Pt %: 30.9 (10)
Offensive Rebound: 12 (T-8) 
Offensive Rebound %: 33.5 (13)
Assists Per Game: 12.7 (11)
Turnovers Per Game 10.2 (2) 
Assist/Turnover Rate: 1.2 (T-6)

Defense
Points Per Game: 62.1 (1)
Points Per Possession: 0.98 (1)
Field Goal %: 43.4 (10)
3 Pt %: 38.9 (15)
Defensive Rebound: 21.4 (T-9)
Defensive Rebound %: 70.1 (1)
Turnovers Per Game: 14.3 (T-4)
Steals: 6.7 (7)
Blocks: 2.4 (15)

Scoring

1. Yancy Gates 10.4
2. Sean Kilpatrick 10.4
3. Dion Dixon 10.3
4. Cashmere Wright 7.3
5. Larry Davis 6.3

Rebounding

1. Yancy Gates 5.7
2. Ibrahima Thomas 5.4
3. Sean Kilpatrick 3.4
4. Rashad Bishop 3.4
5. Dion Dixon 2.8

Assists

1. Cashmere Wright 3.85
2. Dion Dixon 1.8
3. Rashad Bishop 1.7
4. Sean Kilpatrick 1.5
5. Darnell Wilks 1.2

Steals

1. Yancy Gates 1.3
2. Dion Dixon 1
3. Rashad Bishop 1

Blocks

1. Yancy Gates 0.7

Record: 12-7, 3-4

Offense
Points Per Game: 67.1 (9)
Points Per Possession: 1.04 (9)
Field Goal %: 44.7 (8)
Free Throw %: 67.4 (13)
3 Pt %: 36.1 (7) 
Offensive Rebound: 11.4 (12)
Offensive Rebound %: 34.8 (10)
Assists Per Game: 12.6 (12)
Turnovers: 12 (6)
Assist/Turnover Rate: 1.1 (T-8)

Defense
Points Per Game: 69.9 (11)
Points Per Possession: 1.08 (11)
Field Goal %: 40.6 (3)
3 Pt %: 37.9 (14)
Defensive Rebound: 21.4 (T-9)
Defensive Rebound %: 61 (T-14)
Turnovers Per Game: 12.9 (T-7)
Steals: 7.4 (3)
Blocks: 6.1 (2)

Scoring

1. Jonathan Mitchell 13.4
2. James Beatty 13.3
3. Gilvydas Buruta 10.9
4. Dane Miller 8.4
5. Mike Coburn 6.3

Rebounding

1. Jonathan Mitchell 6
2. Gilvydas Buruta 5.7
3. Dane Miller 5.6
4. Mike Poole 3.6
5. Robert Lumpkins 2.3

Assists

1. Mike Coburn 4.4
2. Dane Miller 2.7
3. James Beatty 2
4. Mike Poole 1.3
5. Jonathan Mitchell 1

Steals

1. Mike Coburn 1.6
2. James Beatty 1.3
3. Jonathan Mitchell 1
4. Mike Poole 1

Blocks

1.  Dane Miller 2.7
2. Jonathan Mitchell 0.7

It's almost February. That means that the basketball season is rounding to the finish, and the games start to take on a little bit more importance. The Bearcats sit at 17-3, 4-3 in the Big East. They have 11 games remaining on the schedule. Since it's Tuesday, and Tuesday kinda sucks, let's take a look ahead and try to guess how this season will play out. Keep in mind, this is for entertainment purposes only, but if I nail this shit, you'll never heard the end of it. Also, yes that is me pictured up top.

1/22 @ St John's - W

I included this one on the list so it would be an even list of 12. This was a crucial win, as it was the first road win in conference play for UC.

1/26 v Rutgers
Opponent RPI: 101 Ken Pom: 87

Hopeful Result: Win. You gotta keep serve at home against a team that's inferior statistically and on paper. That's kinda the same thing. Rutgers has 3 conference wins, so they aren't a total write off. They beat the dregs of the conference, USF, Providence, Seton Hall. The only win they have on the road in conference is at Seton Hall, the last game they played. The only other road win they have is against Monmouth. UC should take care of business. 

Worst Case: The Bearcats drop a game at home to a team that they should have beaten, taking their first bad loss of the season in the process.

Outlook: Win. Projected record: 18-3, 5-3

1/29 v West Virginia
Opponent RPI: 14 Ken Pom: 24

Hopeful Result: Win. On the news that Casey Mitchell has been suspended indefinitely, the outlook is a bit better. The Mountaineers are running the Louisville/Cincinnati circuit, so I don't really expect Mitchell to play in either game. Even if he does, the Mountaineers have not been good outside of Morgantown. They own a nice neutral court win over Vandy, won at Duquesne and Georgetown. That's it. They've lost two neutral site games, one to Marshall, and two road games. Ken Pom currently likes UC to take this one down. I do too. UC can't afford to blow home games. True story, Mick Cronin has beaten Bob Huggins every year he's been at WVU. 

Worst Case: UC blows a home game. I don't think there is a ton of difference between WVU and UC this season. The Bearcats could use this game, but if they lost, I don't think it would do much harm. 

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 19-3, 6-3 

2/5 @ Pittsburgh
Opponent RPI: 5 Ken Pom: 4

Hopeful Result: The Bearcats go on the road to the PEC and do what ND did last night, tough out a win. The Bearcats get a signature win, and one on the road. The Bearcats use the week of rest that they will have for good, and come out guns blazing against the Panthers. 

Worst Case: Doors get blown off, a repeat of what happened against Nova and Syracuse. The Bearcats haven't won in Pitt since they've been in the Big East. UC played them tough last season, but I think Pitt is just better. No shame losing there. 

Outlook: Loss. Projected Record: 19-4, 6-4

2/8 @ DePaul
Opponent RPI: 219 Ken Pom: 183

Hopeful Result: Win. It's DePaul. Already beat them once. And really, it's DePaul. They say you aren't supposed to count your chickens before they hatch, and that's true. Unless that egg is a win over DePaul, in that case, you count. 

Worst Case: A humiliating loss to the worst team in the conference. #BootCincinnati hashtag becomes in vogue.

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 20-4, 7-4 

2/13 v St John's
Opponent RPI: 24 Ken Pom: 54

Hopeful Result: The Bearcats won on the road, and the stats say that the team that wins on the road, almost always wins at home. The Bearcats and Red Storm are pretty even, but the Bearcats front line out worked St John's big time. UC plays better at home, and this should be win 21.

Worst Case: St John's comes into Cincinnati and gets a sweet slice of revenge.

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 21-4, 8-4

2/16 v Louisville
Opponent RPI: 39 Ken Pom: 16

Hopeful Result: The Bearcats clamp on the d against the Cardinals heavy outside shooting attack, and once again hold serve at home. When the shots aren't falling for the Cardinals, they are ripe for the picking. Cincinnati does a pretty good job at limiting looks from downtown. The Bearcats and Cardinals have played tightly contested games since 2008. UC hasn't beaten Louisville at home since 2006. 

Worst Case: Preston(!) Knowles and company drop threes all over 5/3 Arena and hand the Bearcats a loss. Not a bad loss, but it would be in the sense that UC needs to win at home. 

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 22-4, 9-4

2/19 @ Providence
Opponent RPI: 103 Ken Pom: 77

Hopeful Result: The Bearcats go on the road and keep the winning streak alive at 4. The Bearcats should be able to go on the road and beat a team that they seem better than. Plus, these are the games you definitely have to win to have a good looking resume in March.

Worst Case: Providence has only lost 1 time at home this season. With the schedule before the UC game, it'll probably be twice. The Dunk is a tough place to win, Louisville @ Providence Saturday exhibit A, and while it wouldn't be great, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Ok, it could be.

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 23-4, 10-4.

2/23 @ Georgetown
Opponent RPI: 8 Ken Pom: 29

Hopeful Result: The hopeful result here is that UC goes to Washington DC and doesn't get annihilated. UC won in 2009 at Georgetown, but the other 3 trips have been ass kickings. The Hoyas are a step below elite, at least so far. One would hope the Bearcats could ride the hot streak that I have them on into DC and grind out a win.

Worst Case: Nearly every other trip to Georgetown.

Outlook: Loss. Projected Record: 23-5, 10-5

2/27 v Connecticut 
Opponent RPI: 3 Ken Pom: 15

Hopeful Result: A replay of the series from last season, when the Bearcats swept the Huskies.

Worst Case: The UConn squad of this season is not that team. They have the best player in America, in my humble opinion, and he can pretty much do anything. If the game is close this year, the Bearcats will lose. Because, as our buddies the UConn blog say, they have Kemba Walker and we don't.

Outlook: Loss. Projected Record: 23-6, 10-6

3/2 @ Marquette
Opponent RPI: 61 Ken Pom: 27

Hopeful Result: Cincinnati does something that they haven't done since 2006, beat Marquette. Yeah, it's been that long. Seems like we use to beat them every year. It use to be special playing Marquette. Now, it just feels like another game. Did you know UC and Marquette didn't play at all in 2007? Seems weird.

Worst Case: Marquette will be on the bubble. When they are on the bubble late in the year, they seem to win. The last time UC went to Marquette, I think the score was 90-40. Oh, it was 84-50. My fake score was incredibly similar to what actually happened.

Outlook: Loss. Projected Record: 23-7, 10-7

3/5 v Georgetown

Hopeful Result: The Bearcats get revenge on the Hoyas for the projected road loss. And, it's Senior Day, so it would be great for the seniors to go out with a W.

Worst Case: Cincinnati doesn't match up well with Georgetown, and get swept into a 4th straight loss. Georgetown won't have played for a week before this game. 2 of their last 3 are against UC. I kinda hope they play the first game in the BET.  

Outlook: Win. Projected Record: 24-7, 11-7

I may have gone a bit on the optimistic side, but I don't think I did too much. Even if you make the Louisville and Georgetown games losses, that's still 9-9, 22-8 overall, and that might be enough for the Bearcats to get in the NCAA tournament. They would have work to do in the BET, but they could do something. I think the schedule breaks down into a few categories.

Must win

• @ DePaul
• @ Providence
• v Rutgers

Should win toss ups

• v Louisville
• v Georgetown
• v West Virginia
• v St John's

 

The Cincinnati Bearcats got a huge win Saturday afternoon, as they narrowly beat the St John's Red Storm. The win was a huge one. It was the first RPI top 25 win for the Bearcats, it got them over .500 in the Big East, and it was a win. It also was a game where many different people stepped up to help the cause. It was a true team win. The Bearcats needed something like this, and they got it and succeeded. It wasn't always pretty, but the prettiest result is a W, and no one can take that away. 

Mick Cronin talked about changing the lineup for a week, and he finally did it here, as Darnell Wilks started over Ibrahima Thomas. 2 games late on that Mick. The game started as a brickfest. Dion Dixon, my best friend, missed the game's opening shot, a 3 pointer. St John's missed a long shot of their own, turned it over, got it back when Rashad Bishop got a steal and tried to throw a 30 foot bounce pass on a break that should have been a lay up, and then missed a lay up. Dixon missed another 3, St John's missed a pair of free throws, followed by Cash turning the ball over, which eventually led to the first basket, a Justin Brownlee jumper 2 and a half minutes into the game. Dixon would then turn the ball over, but St John's missed. That was ok, because Cash turned the ball over, leading to a Paris Horne jumper. UC responded quickly here, as Yancy Gates hit a 12 footer at the 16 minute mark for the first UC bucket. Justin Burrell came right back with a lay up to make it 6-2. Gates would miss a jumper, and then be called for a rebounding foul. With 15:35 in the first half, UC's second leading scorer was on the bench.

Horne scored again on a jumper for the Johnnies out of the timeout. Rashad Bishop missed a 3 for the Bearcats, but Ibrahima Thomas got a block on the other end. That allowed Bishop to miss two more shots. Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson entered the game before the first media break, and it didn't take too much longer for them to make an impact. Kilpatrick drew a foul and made 1 of 2 to make it 8-3. He got a rebound and assisted Ibrahima Thomas for a 3 pointer, his first 3 since 1983. Sean Evans hit 1 of 2 at the line for St John's after a Thomas foul, followed by Larry Davis tying the score with a 3 pointer. Thomas would get another block, but just like the first, UC couldn't take advantage. A Cash foul put Paris Horne at the line with 11:19 to go in a tie game. 

Horne hit 1 of 2 for the Johnnies to put them back in front. Cash would get called for his second travel of the game, which led to Derrick Polee making it 12-9. Kilpatrick would miss for UC, but Bishop got the rebound. Justin Jackson received the ball on the block, and made a strong move for the score. Yeah, Justin Jackson did that. He also fouled Brownlee on the next possession, who hit 1 of 2. Sense a trend for St John's? Jackson kept the offense going for UC, getting a dunk off an inbound play. Jackson picked up his second on the defensive end. UC had 2 shots on offense, Kilpatrick threes, got the offensive rebound, but Thomas was whistled for a foul. That foul meant Thomas, Gates and Jackson all had 2. Boothe missed a 2 for St John's, but after they got the offensive rebound, hit a 3. Kilpatrick turned the ball over again for UC, leading to Wilks fouling Evans as we went into the under 8, 16-13. 


Evans hit 1 of 2 for the Red Storm to give them a 4 point lead. Dixon would be called for an offensive foul giving the ball back to St John's. UC needed to go Biggie with it, and he paid off by blocking a shot. UC wouldn't score, but St John's would, as Evans was once again fouled by Wilks. He once again made 1 of 2. Cash had a quick miss for UC, leading to a break for St John's, as Evans finished a lay up from Boothe, making it 20-13. That drew a timeout from Mick. UC went back to their best scoring option, Justin Jackson. Jackson hit a jumper off glass, something I called Tim Duncan-esque on twitter. Then, Jackson got a block, and on the other end, fed Biggie for a lay up. That drew a Lavin timeout, as he tried to decide how to stop the Wildebeest. St John's missed a lay up, but Jackson had a lay up blocked on the other end. St John's turned that into 1 of 2 at the line by DJ Kennedy. Larry Davis thought free throws looked fun, so he got fouled and made both. Both teams missed ok to bad shots, then Jackson turned the ball over, but got it back, leading to a Bishop jumper to cut the lead to 1. After a missed 3, Bishop drained a 3 pointer for UC, giving them the lead. St John's missed again. Something insane happened here. Biggie McClain drilled a shot from the right elbow. Yeah, Biggie. St John's missed again, as the ball went out under the UC basket. That took us to the media timeout with 2.4 seconds left. Mick used the time well. The inbounder, I think Jackson, threw a baseball pass to Biggie, who was at the top of the other key. Biggie threw a quick pass to Larry Davis on the right wing, who drilled a jumper at the buzzer. It was not unlike the play UC used to beat Duke. That gave UC a 28-22 lead. The Goon Squad closed on a 15-1 run. 


In a precursor to what might happen Wednesday, Justin Jackson started the second half for UC. The Bearcats came out ice cold, missing their first 4 shots in the first 2 minutes of the half. The got the rebound off of the 4th miss, but Cash had the ball stolen by Horne, who passed to Dwight Hardy for a lay up. Cash turned the ball over again, indirectly leading to a Hardy 3 to pull St John's to within 1. Bishop missed a 3, St John's missed 2 shots by Polee, Bishop missed another 3, Kilpatrick missed a lay up, before Gates got the rebound and got fouled. Yancy hit both free throws for the first UC points of the half. Kennedy answered with a 3 to tie the score at 30. St John's would turn the ball over after a Kilpatrick miss at 15:16, taking us to the first break.

Sean Killpatrick's rough day continued, as he was called for a cheap charge on a drive to the rim. St John's took the lead as Horne went up for a big time dunk. Gates tied it for UC on a jumper. After a Gates miss, Jackson gave UC the lead on a put back on a Gates air ball. Kennedy hit another 3 for St John's for the lead, but a Gates dunk put UC back in front 36-35. Gates got a steal from Brownlee, leading to Cash's first bucket of the game. Burrell answered with a put back after a Brownlee airball. The teams swapped misses, before Mick called timeout with 9:55 left. Cash liked what Mick said in the huddle, as he drilled a 3 pointer to put UC up 4. After a Burrell miss, Evans was called for a rebounding foul, taking us to the under 12 with 9:19 to go, and UC up 41-37.

Out of the break, Cash's hot streak continued, as he drilled another 3. Just like how UC answered from 7 down in the first half, St John's did in the second. After Evans had a lay up blocked by Wilks, Boothe got the rebound and hit a jumper. A Davis miss turned into a Hardy 2. Cash turned the ball over yet again, with Burrell getting a steal that led to a Hardy 3. The lead was gone in a minute. Horne was called for a foul, and that took us to the under 8 at 7:07 tied at 44.

Cash was money, get it, GET IT?, out of this timeout, as he scored from inside the arc. Back to back UC fouls put St John's at the line, where Kennedy made both. Cash turned the ball over two more times, but St John's missed a jumper and a pair of free throws. Davis gave UC the lead with a jumper, but would reach on a Burrell lay up attempt, which was made. Burrell also hit the free throw, putting St John's up 49-48. Bishop missed a close shot, but Gates followed untouched from the right side with a follow dunk to give UC the lead back. Jackson would foul 5 seconds later though, putting St John's at the line with 3:27 to go. This was the last media break.


Malik Boothe was the man fouled for the Red Storm. As keeping with tradition, he made the first, and missed the second. UC ran some horrible offense, leading to Gates throwing up a 3 to beat the shot clock. Cash got the rebound though. The possession ended with Bishop taking, and missing a turn around jumper in the lane. Gates would foul Kennedy on the other end. DJ hit the first, and missed the second, but St John's was now up 51-50. Cronin called timeout, but I don't think the play was for Bishop to dribble for 20 seconds and then throw the ball away, because that's what happened. Jackson got a steal from Hardy to give UC the ball back. Once again it was Bishop who had the ball. This time, Bishop missed a double pump lay up in the lane that nearly made my eye pop out. Davis fouled Hardy. St John's was in the 1-1. Hardy missed. UC called timeout with 27 seconds left. UC got the ball to Gates isolated on the left block. He turned left, went up strong, no fade away, scored right on Burrell with a foul. Gates hit the free throw with 8 seconds left. Hardy raced down the floor for St John's. He got a good look from the right elbow area, but missed. Burrell couldn't get a follow shot to fall, and that was it. 53-51 Cincinnati wins. The Gates shot is pictured at the top of the post. 

Cincinnati shot 16-33 on two pointers, 5-17 on threes, and only 6-7 from the foul line. UC pulled home 35 rebounds, 9 offensive, with 4 steals and 5 blocks. Cincinnati had 11 assists on 21 shots, against 16 turnovers. Yancy Gates was the leading scorer for UC. He had 13, on 5-9, and 8 rebounds. He had 11 in the second half. Gates probably could have had a monster game if not for the fouls. Cash Wright had 10-4 assists, but 8 turnovers. Not gonna fly 1. Larry Davis had 9, Justin Jackson 8-6-1 assist-2 steals-1 block in 29 minutes, Rashad Bishop 5-5, Biggie McClain 4-6-1 block in 8 minutes, Ibrahima Thomas 3-2 blocks, Sean Kilpatrick 1. Dion Dixon had 1 assist, 0-2 shooting in 13 minutes. 

St John's was 12-34 on twos, 5-9 from deep, but a horrid 12-26 at the foul line. St John's had 23 rebounds, 6 offensive with 8 steals and 2 blocks. St John's had 10 assists on 17 shots, and 9 turnovers. DJ Kennedy had 10-6 (4-8 FT), Dwight Hardy 10, Justin Burrell 7 (1-4), 10-2 steals-1 block, Paris Horne 7-3 assists, Sean Evans 6 (4-7), Malik Boothe 6-3 assists, Dwayne Polee 2.

Let's hit the positives and negatives fairly quickly.

Positivies

• The UC bigs dominated. Gates, Jackson, Biggie and Thomas had 28-21. They got the job done when the guards did absolutely nothing. Biggie and Jackson did a great job in the first half, and Gates took over in the second. 
• Also taking over in the second half? Cash Wright. He had 10 points in the second half, hitting big shots when UC needed them. Cash and Gates had 21 of the 25 second half points for UC. Look for that in the negatives column.
• The Goon Squad were the mother effers in this game. UC needed something offensively, and they responded in fucking spades. Davis, Biggie, Jackson, all of them brought it and brought it hard. UC needed everything that they had to beat St John's and they were there. Great effort. 

Negatives

• I know a lot has been said already about Dixon and Kilpatrick combining for 1 point. Kilpatrick was just off, 0-6. Those things happen. I don't know what was up with Dixon. He played only 13 minutes, and it seemed like none in the second half down the stretch. Larry Davis brought a lot off the bench though. Hopefully this doesn't get to Dion, because UC is going to need him. 
• The starters brought really nothing to the table besides kinda Cash and Gates. Wilks played only 9 minutes and did nothing. Dixon did nothing. Bishop was 2-11 and was trying to give me a heart attack. Cash was throwing things off the table in the first half, and Gates sat on the bench. Both had big moments in the second to redeem themselves. Mainly because we won. 
• The offense was once again sitting in the locker room to start the first half, and to start the second. This is really pissing me off. Come up with some plays to start the game Mick. Do fucking something. 

UC probably should have lost this game. St John's shot free throws just about as bad as I have ever seen. They left the door wide open for the Bearcats to sneak through, and UC did it. I'm not complaining about a W, but man did we catch one Saturday. That's why you stay positive and believe. Things like this happen. Hopefully they happen again. 
 

YANCY GATES!

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Triple article Friday comes to a close with a St John's preview. Tomorrow at 4 on ESPN3 at least, the Bearcats put their 16-3, 3-3 record on the line against the 11-6 St John's Red Storm. A season ago, the Bearcats suffered a horrible loss at St John's, when the Bearcats self destructed and did pretty much everything to give the game away. When I say pretty much, UC actually threw an inbound pass to St John's for a lay up that gave them the lead. Bad times. It was such bad times that it inspired me to do the top 25 losses list, where that game ranked at #10. This year, let's hope the Bearcats don't suffer the same fate. Let's preview this bitch. 

 Record: 16-3, 3-3 in the Big East

Scoring

1. Dion Dixon 12.7
2. Yancy Gates 11.5
3. Sean Kilpatrick 10.4
4. Cashmere Wright 9
5. Rashad Bishop 7.7

Rebounding

1. Yancy Gates 6.6
2. Ibrahima Thomas 6.3
3. Rashad Bishop 3.4
4. Dion Dixon 3.2
5. Sean Kilpatrick 3

Assists

1. Cashmere Wright 3.8
2. Dion Dixon 1.8
3. Sean Kilpatrick 1.6
4. Rashad Bishop 1.5
5. Darnell Wilks/Yancy Gates 1.4

Steals

1. Cash Wright 1.5
2. Dion Dixon/Rashad Bishop 1

Blocks

1. Yancy Gates 1.4

FT % (20 attempts min.)

1. Rashad Bishop 89.7
2. Cash Wright 76.5
3. Dion Dixon 72.3
4. Darnell Wilks 69.7
5. Sean Kilpatrick 67.3